February 22, 2000
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Friday that a long-delayed referendum on the future of Western Sahara might never occur due to persistent differences about who would be allowed to vote. In an unusually blunt and pessimistic report, Annan said that disputes over voters "could eventually prevent the holding of the referendum."
A vote to decide whether the former Spanish colony should be incorporated into Morocco, which now controls the territory, or become independent, was originally scheduled for January 1992, but has been postponed repeatedly (Financial Times, 21 Feb). Most recently, it was scheduled for July 2000, but the Security Council said in a previous report that it would likely not be held before 2002.
Mohamed Abdelaziz, secretary-general of the Western Saharan nationalist Polisario Front movement, told Annan at a meeting in New York earlier this month that Western Saharans have a right "to defend their cause themselves if the United Nations is no longer committed to the peace process" (Panafrican News Agency/Africa News Online, 9 Feb). Abdelaziz added that fighting could break out between the Polisario Front and Morocco if the referendum is not held by year-end (Financial Times). But Annan, issuing what he called a "sobering assessment" of the situation, said a referendum date "cannot be set with certainty" for now and that the existing timetable is "no longer valid."
The UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) already has to deal with 79,000 appeals from people who wish to vote, and faces the prospect of receiving up to 60,000 more appeals by the 25 February deadline. Annan intends to ask his personal envoy for Western Sahara, former US Secretary of State James Baker, "to consult the parties on ways to resolve their differences." Annan also recommended the Security Council extend MINURSO's mandate, which is set to expire on 29 February, to 31 May (UN Newservice, 18 Feb).
Annan said the unresolved dispute over who can vote means no new date can be set for the referendum (Associated Press/CNN Interactive, 19 Feb).
The Polisario Front, which launched a guerrilla war in 1975 in a bid for independence from Morocco, agreed to a cease-fire in 1991 and a UN-organized referendum to settle the territory's status. The two sides agreed to electoral rolls based on a Spanish census held in 1974. But the Polisario Front charges Morocco with "trying to rig the outcome by packing the register with people who arrived after 1975" (Rupert Cornwell, London Independent, 14 Feb).
UN Subject To Manipulation?
In a speech delivered at Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies Wednesday, former MINURSO deputy chair Frank Ruddy portrayed UN officials as indifferent to Moroccan manipulation. Calling MINURSO a "poor showing even by UN standards," Ruddy described former MINURSO head Erik Jensen as naive and "the wrong man for the job."
In a more optimistic look at the situation, UN Special Representative for the Western Sahara Charles Dunbar noted that the mission has succeeded in keeping the peace. No serious fighting has taken place between the Polisario and the Moroccan government since the 1991 cease-fire, he said. Yet he admitted that the voter identification process is vulnerable to manipulation by both sides. Dunbar advocated considering a "third option" of a negotiated settlement between Morocco and the Polisario.
Anthony Pazzanita, an expert on Western Sahara and the author of the Historical Dictionary of Western Sahara, cast doubt on the Polisario's threats to return to violence. According to Pazzanita, the Polisario's principal sponsor, Algeria, has too many of its own problems to allow another flash point (Justin Crowne, UN Wire, 18 Feb).
