Global Policy Forum

By Marwaan Macan-Markar

Increasing fault-lines between countries that share the Mekong River are worrying environmentalists who warn that there is a grave possibility of a "water war" erupting in the region. The emerging tension is most palpable among communities, in countries along the lower end of this mighty body of water, who depend on the river for their diet and livelihood. This warning was given by environmentalists during a seminar here in this northern Thai city located a short distance from the river.

Among the exhibits they held up to make their case were the rush to build dams in the southern Chinese province of Yunnan; the noticeable drop in the fish population in Cambodia and parts of the Mekong that flows past Thailand; and the damage to the river's eco-system due to irregular fluctuation of water-levels during the annual dry season. The Laotian government's desperate need for foreign exchange through its nascent tourism industry has also been affected, since boats often used to carry tourists have been unable to ply along the Mekong near the ancient city of Luang Prabang during the dry season due to a drop in the river's water level.

To compound this, Thailand and China have recently struck a deal that will literally amount to pouring oil on flames - to transport petroleum from Thailand to southern China in ships not built to perform the role of oil tankers. "It will be a disaster if these ships get damaged or sink in the Mekong," Chainarong Srettachau, director of the Thai chapter of the South-east Asia Rivers Network (SEARIN), told IPS. "If there is an oil spill, it will spread fast down stream and we will not be able to contain it like they do in the ocean," he said, adding that such mid-river accidents have happened to ships transporting goods along this waterway, such as fruits and electronic products.

China's presence as the source of these potential conflicts emerges from the Asian giant's hunger for energy to drive the engine of its skyrocketing economy - which is one of the best performers in the world.

The plans to build a cascade of dams across the Mekong River are pivotal in Beijing's plans for economic growth. "There has been a stampede to develop the river for hydropower," John Dore, a researcher at the Chiang Mai University's Mekong Water Governance Network, told the seminar attended by journalists from the Mekong Subregion. They include the plans to build eight dams in Yunnan, two of which, the Manwan and Dachaoshan, have been completed, while the Xiaowan and Jinghong are under construction. The Xiaowan will be the tallest, standing at a towering 300 meters.

Once the Chinese dams are completed, those who stand to lose out "include millions of people downstream - mostly beyond the Chinese border - reliant on fishing and river bank farming," states a background paper distributed by Dore at the seminar. The 4,880 kilometer-long Mekong River begins its journey in the Tibetan plateau, snakes through China's Yunnan province, and proceeds downwards along a path touching Burma, past Laos and Thailand and through Cambodia till it flows out into the South China Sea in southern Vietnam.

The Mekong region covers over 2.3 million square miles and is home to 240 million people. Of that number, some 60 million people depend on the river for food, water and transport. The significance of fish for these people is reflected in its abundance, since the annual fish yield in the lower basin tops 1.75 million tones, which is 20 percent of all fish caught from the inland waters of the world.

Plans to develop the Mekong Subregion were launched in 1992 by the Asian Development Bank (AsDB), with the aim of promoting development, trade and cooperation within the six countries in the area. To secure physical integration, the AsDB promoted the building of stronger transportation, communication and power networks. While economic integration was encouraged through trade and free-market policies.

The vision these policies promoted were in stark contrast to the image the world had of the Mekong during the U.S. government's invasion of Indo- China from early 1960 through the early 1970s. Then, the mighty Mekong served as the backdrop to the Washington's Vietnam War. But now, 12 years after the Manila-based international financial institution sought to convert the Mekong into a zone for mega development plans, a conflict of a different kind is steadily spiraling to the surface.

"The conflict over resource use will be a challenge in the future," Jaseem Ahmed of the AsDB told the seminar. "We have begun to work informally with leaders (to address potential conflicts). We are not in a position to isolate countries."

And Apichai Sunchindah, a U.N. official, cautioned against downstream countries taking China to task for fueling the rising tide of tension. "I don't think ganging up on China will work," he said. "The Mekong River is an international river and there are international norms and international values to consider," he added. "We need to talk to China."

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