Global Policy Forum

By Hisane Masaki

In the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, Japan has been forced to review its diplomatic strategy for gaining a long-coveted permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. The first obvious result of this review has been Japan's decision to back down from an initial plan to seek a two- year nonpermanent membership of the powerful council in an election this autumn. Tokyo has considered temporary membership to be an important steppingstone toward a permanent role.

Of the 15 council seats, five are held by permanent members with veto power - the United States, Russia, Britain, France and China. The remaining 10 seats are held by nonpermanent members and are allotted regionally - three to Africa, two each to Asia, Latin America and Western Europe, and one to Eastern Europe. At present, the two nonpermanent seats allotted to Asia are held by Singapore and Syria. Japan and Brazil have been elected to the council as nonpermanent members eight times - the most among U.N. member countries. Japan last served as a nonpermanent member between 1997 and 1998.

The Japanese decision to drop its bid for a nonpermanent council seat has almost certainly assured Pakistan, apparently the sole Asian candidate, of an easy win. The seat is being vacated due to the expiry of Singapore's term. "It is true that we were initially considering dragging down Pakistan and seeking election as a nonpermanent council member in this year's election," a senior Foreign Ministry official in charge of U.N. affairs said, requesting anonymity. "There were strong doubts before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks that Pakistan would be qualified enough to be elected to the council as an Asian representative and that the country's council membership would be accepted broadly by the international community," the official said.

"But the situation changed completely after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States," the official said. "And we have reached the conclusion that it would be better to refrain from daring to face Pakistan in this year's election to the U.N. Security Council."

In May 1998, Pakistan and India carried out tit-for-tat nuclear tests, sparking an international uproar and raising deep concerns about a possible nuclear war in volatile Southern Asia. In October 1999, Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup, adding further fuel to international criticism of Islamabad. But the Musharraf government gave staunch support to the U.S.-led war against terrorism in Afghanistan, launched less than a month after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. In return, the U.S., Japan and other industrialized countries lifted economic sanctions imposed against Islamabad to protest its nuclear tests.

According to government sources, Japan now plans to run in another election to the U.N. Security Council in the autumn of 2004, when it will seek to become a nonpermanent member for the ninth time. Papua New Guinea, the most promising candidate to win a nonpermanent council seat allotted to Asia in the 2004 vote, has conveyed its intention to withdraw its bid and back up Japan's anticipated candidacy, the sources said.

Japan, the world's second largest contributor to the U.N. budget after the U.S., has murmured "no taxation without representation" and has campaigned long and hard for a permanent seat on the council.

Reform of the U.N. Security Council, including possible expansion of its membership, has been discussed since 1993 by a special task force set up under the U.N. General Assembly; there has been no significant progress, however. Sharp differences remain over such thorny questions as the size of a future council and whether new permanent members should be granted veto power. Japan and many other U.N. member countries insist that the number of both permanent and nonpermanent members should be increased to a total of 24. Japan and Germany are the most likely industrialized nations to win permanent positions.

The former U.S. administration of President Bill Clinton announced in the spring of 2000 that it would be willing to discuss boosting the council membership from the current 15 to a little more than 21. Washington had previously set that number as an acceptable ceiling for future council membership. The sudden change in U.S. policy raised hopes among Japanese policymakers of an immediate breakthrough in the stalled discussions on reform of the council. Those expectations, however, were not realized.

At the annual summit of top leaders from the Group of Eight countries in Okinawa in July 2000, the G-8 issued a joint communique calling for reform of the Security Council. The summit was held only three months after the U.S. announced its policy change.

The inclusion of the need for reform of the council in the G-8 communique was the result of strong pressure from Tokyo. The G-8 countries, however, did not refer to the issue in a statement issued at their following summit in Genoa, Italy, in July 2001. Italy has been reluctant to reform the council. If Germany obtains a permanent seat, Italy will be the only major European industrialized country left unrepresented on the council. The G-8 countries are again expected to make no mention of the reform issue in the joint statement to be issued at the upcoming summit in Canada in late June. The G-8 comprises the U.S., Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Russia.

Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi told the Upper House Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense in late April that she plans to continue Japan's efforts to seek a permanent council seat. "I think it is an important task to obtain a permanent seat for Japan. The U.S. has announced its support and we need to continuously make efforts to that end," she said. But the prospects for any significant progress on the reform issue appear as gloomy as ever. In stark contrast to the situation several years ago, there is no heated debate - even in Japan - about Tokyo's bid for a permanent council role.

Ordinary Japanese citizens and politicians now seem more inward-looking than ever, preoccupied with the continued economic doldrums at home. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi himself is widely believed to be less than enthusiastic about seeking a permanent council seat. Japan's loss to the U.S. of its status as the world's largest single aid donor, in 2001, also dealt a significant setback to its international diplomatic clout. The rankings were announced earlier this month by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Development Assistance Committee. The continued weakening of Japanese economic might could also adversely affect its bid for a permanent U.N. Security Council seat.

Japanese government officials unanimously agree that the U.S. attitude will hold the key to any future development in debate about council reform. "The Bush administration has been so preoccupied with the war on terrorism that it could not afford to formulate its policy toward U.N. Security Council reform," said a senior Foreign Ministry official, who refused to be identified. Another senior ministry official said, "Whether progress will be made on the council reform issue depends on the U.S. But, unlike the Clinton administration, the Republican Party is traditionally critical of the U.N., seeing it as a constraint on the U.S. national sovereignty." "The Republican administration of President George W. Bush also seems to be skeptical of the need for council reform," the official said. "The Bush administration seems to feel that everything has been going relatively well, given the U.N. Security Council's response to the Sept. 11 incidents." The official added,"The U.N. task force's discussions about council reform will enter their 10th year next year. We want to do our best to keep momentum for reform of the council from being lost even further."

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