Global Policy Forum

By Dr. Ali Abdullahi M Barkadle

Somalia has had thirteen conferences since the collapse of the dictatorial regime of Siad Barre. All of them failed miserably due to myopic approaches by the international community. In order to settle the long-standing Somali political crisis, we need to grasp the root causes of the problem and then find solutions that are viable.

The Problems

First, the root cause of Somalia's woes is lack of skilled political leadership, most of the leaders that have been put in place were either propped up by a corrupt and untransparent patronage system, the average leader or warlord has never gone beyond primary school. Brutality and the propensity to cause death and chaos is the most sought after trait.

Secondly, the clan system was used cleverly by the dictatorial regime of Siad Barre in pitting clan against clan that has resulted in genocide in parts of Somalia and enmity and mistrust is rife in the clans. The Djibouti conference of 2000 made the same mistake by using the clan system in curving up Somalia. We all know what happened to that administration, after almost two years they have caused more chaos in safer zones of Somalia, their sphere of influence has not gone beyond the town of Mogadishu and they barely control a quarter of that city.

Thirdly, lack of financial and technical assistance resulted in the collapse of Somali commerce and industry that resulted in mass unemployment. The then government without technical assistance started printing money to cover the massive hole in the budget resulting in hyperinflation.

Fourthly, institutionalized corruption that was encouraged by the then government and the outside world. It is said that beggars have no choices but at this time it was the beggars that were corrupting officers at the IMF and the World Bank with kickbacks and the multilateral bodies dished out funds without proper scrutiny.

Fifthly, a centralized form of government encouraged corruption and collusion. Transparency was compromised. The dilemma of "one state, one city" in which all power and development is concentrated in the capital city, should be avoided.

The Solutions

After a rigorous analysis of the main problems that has catapulted Somalia into a state of chaos and anarchy few solution exist.

First, move away from tribalism and clanism and do not use the clan structure to divide the political cake. The clan system is hollow and has no end. It is wise to use regionalism and parties, civil society in encouraging competitive politics. The Somali conference in Eldoret, Kenya, which is due in mid September should not limit the time to just two weeks.

Second, members of the dictatorial regime of Siad Barre, captains of Fundamental organizations, warlords with tainted records should be disqualified from running for the presidency. If the delegates consist of the same people that have put Somalia into its grave then expect them to do like wise if they are given the same chance again.

Thirdly, decentralize and devolutionize government by adopting the David Shinn principle (please see a paper presented by the honorable Ambassador David Shinn entitled "Somalia: Prospects for peace and stability" in 1994) that advocates for the creation of federal states of Somalia. The states are:

- Puntland
- Somaliland
- Banadir
- Riverland
- Jubaland

The creation of the above five states looks reasonable since its based on co-existence of the various clans without causing conflict and chaos. The said statehoods will encourage development, it will also create inter state competition in economic, human and infrastructure development that will lessen conflict. It will also encourage the wise utilization of meager resources and corrupt leaders will be sidelined. A more educated and vibrant leaders will thus emerge from the current ashes of anarchy.

Okay, if we opt for a loose federation then the states should have their own legislation, judiciary, and elected Prime ministers. The presidency should rotate between the five states or Prime ministers and the post of president should only be ceremonious. The capital city should be placed in a place that is new and should not be claimed by any state as its own territory. External aid and debt incurred should be divided equally between the five states. The then president will be signatory to international bodies after consultation with the states. The president shall elect his own cabinet. The period of office shall be a maximum of two four-year terms for any Prime Minister.

I hope and sincerely believe that the above proposals shall ameliorate the current sorry state our beloved country is in today.

Nairobi, August 16, 2002

The Author Dr. Ali Abdullahi M Barkadle is a Consultant with Amsas Consulting.

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