Global Policy Forum

By Felicity Barringer

The Bush administration is virtually assured of gaining Security Council approval of a revised United Nations resolution on Iraq's future, diplomats here said Tuesday, but it remains unclear whether the measure will be adopted overwhelmingly or in a less convincing, abstention-riddled vote. The resolution, however it passes, will mark an important step in the administration's attempt to gain broader international backing both for the occupation forces in Iraq and the reconstruction of the country. A week after it had flirted with abandoning the resolution in the face of objections from Secretary General Kofi Annan and countries like France, the administration produced a new version that made symbolic concessions to some of those concerns and then called for a vote on Wednesday afternoon.

In response, Russia, France and Germany presented amendments Tuesday morning that concede to the American-led coalition control over the gradual transfer of power to Iraqis, but gives the Security Council some oversight authority. In particular, they call on the coalition to give the Council a schedule for the transfer of power. Under the American draft, the Iraqi Governing Council must produce by Dec. 15 a timetable for drafting a constitution and holding elections - the two steps seen as essential by the United States for a meaningful transfer of authority.

The European amendments were sent to Washington for consideration by the national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, and Secretary of State Colin L. Powell at midday, but administration officials made it clear that they had little time or inclination for significant compromises. Negotiations in the late afternoon among Council members at the American mission closed the gap between the two camps slightly, but one diplomat expressed concern that Washington had not gone far enough to win the broad-based consensus that it seeks. Among other things, the United States remained steadfast in its refusal to be pinned down to any specific timetable for transferring control. Even so, Washington and London are expected to get enough votes to pass the resolution, although as many as 5 of the 15 members could abstain, including Syria, China and the amendment's three sponsors, diplomats said.

The outline of a compromise seemed clear on Tuesday. The European proposals explicitly acknowledge that any schedule will be based on what the American-led occupation deems practicable. Originally, those countries had sought to transfer some authority to a provisional Iraqi government as soon as possible, perhaps within five months. That effort has now, it seems, been abandoned. But the French ambassador, Jean-Marc de la Sablií¨re, said Tuesday afternoon that the amendments left open the possibility of establishing a provisional government and asked that a precise schedule for the transfer of power to Iraqis be submitted to the Security Council. He also said that the United Nations should have a direct role in preparing both that timetable and the step-by-step process of drafting a constitution and holding elections. "This would be the minimum," he said. "If the co-sponsors would accept this proposal, then we could have a united Council."

During Council consultations on Tuesday morning, China's ambassador indicated his support of the European amendments. There were informal indications that wavering African and Latin American countries were now on board, after being lobbied by Washington over the weekend, according to diplomats. Washington's latest revisions were greeted with little enthusiasm Tuesday morning by Mr. Annan, who said he felt the new version did not "represent a major shift in the thinking of the coalition," and warned that "as long as there's an occupation, the resistance will grow."

A State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, did not rule out the possibility that some themes in the European amendments could be incorporated in the text but made it clear that others were unacceptable. The quick back-and-forth on the draft resolutions language underscored the new fever to get the United Nations issue resolved. As little as a week ago, Washington had seriously considered backing away from the resolution, since Mr. Annan had openly expressed his opposition to having the United Nations, already a target of terrorism in Baghdad, go back in as a sidekick to the occupation authority's effort to choreograph a political transition.

Mr. Annan's doubts undermined Washington's support in countries like Chile and Angola, and cast the resolution's passage into doubt last week. A minimum of nine votes is required to pass a resolution in the Council, assuming none of the five permanent members casts a veto. But Britain, which along with Spain and Cameroon is cosponsoring the resolution, made it clear to Washington that it strongly preferred to work with a new United Nations mandate. Over the weekend, the ambassador at the United Nations, John D. Negroponte, consulted with his counterparts on the Council; and, in Washington, calls were made to foreign ministries to craft new language that could win the support of all, or almost all, Council members.

The ambassadors of France and Russia on Tuesday welcomed the weekend revisions, but made it clear they felt more was needed. The Russian ambassador, Sergey Lavrov, said some of the elements that are crucial to the success of the Security Council discussions are not very clear, and said that the Russian-French-German amendments would remedy the ambiguities within the framework set up by the United States and Britain. Ms. Rice, told reporters on Tuesday, "We are looking at what the Russians and others have proposed." But she added, "We think that the resolution that we put forward is a very good resolution."

That draft provides that Iraq's Governing Council, along with the ministers chosen by them, will embody the sovereignty of Iraq. It also took into account Mr. Annan's security considerations, saying the United Nations should assist in creating a timetable for the drafting of a constitution and the holding of democratic elections as circumstances permit. On Tuesday morning, Mr. Annan said dismissively that the passage providing that the current Iraqi institutions would embody the sovereignty of the country was "a nice phrase," but that "the occupying power will remain the government, whether the resolution is passed or not."

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