Global Policy Forum

The following two pieces represent two different views on the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which escalated again earlier this year. The first is an article from The Monitor in Addis Ababa, portraying the war as an unjustified Eritrean offensive against Ethiopian sovereignty. Following is a release by the Embassy of Eritrea in Washington which blames Ethiopia for wanting to "persue war, not peae" and provides a list of recent Ethiopian air strikes.

Addis Ababa - The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is not a border conflict, but a result of an invasion of a sovereign state of Ethiopia by the state of Eritrea. In May 1998 a heavily mechanized Eritrean army crossed the border and annexed huge parts of Ethiopian territory not in one area, but in four different areas: Badme, Irob, Zalanbesa and Afar.

Ethiopia waited for nine months, begging, the Eritrean leadership to leave the land they have occupied by force and come to a negotiating table. At the end, there was no other choice but to go to a war that Ethiopia has tried so hard to avoid.

As a result of this defensive war, Badme was liberated from Eritrean occupation in late February. While the end can be predicted, what should worry both people is that the two armies know one another so well that the damage will be incalculable in both human and material terms to both countries.

There is no question that the president of Eritrea was prepared to start this war, the question now is if he is prepared to finish it. During the first week of the war, I have confronted an Eritrean friend who warned me that Ethiopia's end was here and that I should be prepared to accept tiny chiefdoms out of what he called "the Ethiopian Empire".

He told me that the Amharas, the Oromos and the Tigreans would turn guns on each other. He told me that all Wedi (son of) Afewerki has to do was to place his army at the border and simply stare at Ethiopia.

I responded by saying that I was worried about that prospect, but if the Ethiopian people can hold Eritrean army for six more months, there is only one way that this war will end, and that is an Ethiopian victory. I reminded him that the people of Tigray have always been able to keep the enemy at bay until their brothers arrived at the scene to destroy the enemy in union.

It is now one year, and as we can see, the longer the war takes, the deeper Eritrea will sink. The one thing that should worry the Ethiopian government though is the overconfidence of the population and those in Diaspora lagging behind in their financial support thinking someone else is doing it.

In my previous comment "Ethiopian and Eritrean bitter divorce", I have warned that this war can go the other way if Ethiopian people do not pay enough attention. The possibility of seeing the "age of princes with no end in sight" must be taken seriously.

It is also critical that while the strategy of patience is working on one hand, it also means a total extinction of some Ethiopian ethnic groups like the Irob people. Ethiopia has demanded that the Eritrean army withdraw from the occupied areas before any negotiations can take place.

The Eritrean authorities are simply dishonest and playing with diplomatic jargon when they claim that they are told to withdraw only from Badme. If Eritrean authorities would worry less about the exact wording of the OAU peace initiative rather than the content and simply leave that which did not belong to them, we could see a beginning of a real peace negotiation.

The Eritrean public needs to understand one thing. It is Eritrea that crossed the border and attacked Ethiopia.

It is Eritrea that is still occupying Ethiopian territory and not the other way round. The benefit of withdrawing now is that the international body will look into the matter in case there was any merit in the territorial claim by Eritrea.

Cessation of hostilities can only start when the causes for the hostilities have at least begun to be corrected. It is unacceptable to demand a cease-fire while occupying someone's territory.

The only cease-fire that should be granted is to allow the occupying army to withdraw in an organized manner with dignity befitting an aggressor. Mr. Isaias has defied all rules of logic, but so have some members of the Eritrean public.

From day one he has defied the language and action of civility. We have all been following his embarrassing demeanor, insults and choice of words that are clearly unbecoming of a leader of a nation.

At times, it is easy to forget if you are listening to a president or wedi shuk (street boy). Let us look at what he has accomplished as the president of Eritrea so far: * The day his fighters moved in Asmara in May 1991 he ordered all Ethiopians and anyone married to Ethiopians to leave Eritrea.

Some 120,000 people were thrown into trucks and some were forced to walk for days to reach Ethiopia. He did not want any children born of Ethiopian fathers even if these men have been long dead.

He wanted a "pure Eritrea". The Eritrean public, knowing that there were even more Eritreans in Ethiopia, did not think twice about the consequences of this decision.

They simply assisted this inhuman atrocity with vengeance and anger. * Mr. Isaias was not any kinder to his own people either.

In one of his first public appearances in Asmara, he told the Eritrean people that the ELF fighters were forgiven for all their sins. Eritrean public knowing that the ELF fighters were the first to fight for Eritrean independence, and were their brothers and sisters, simply listened and poured their love for Wedi Afewerki.

* The fact that Mr. Isaias is not a religious person is not shocking even to the die-hard Shabia members. When he found out that there were groups who did not consider him the supreme ruler not to be questioned right inside Eritrea, he was not very forgiving.

The Jehovah Witnesses who do not accept the worldly government rule could not be true Eritreans, and he ordered their citizenship be revoked. He knows no "true Eritrean" would ever defy his order.

The Eritrean public again failed to stand on the side of fairness, and righteousness. The Eritrean public, instead of protecting their brothers and sisters, ransacked the shops that belonged to the Jehovah Witnesses and stood with their 'beloved' ruler.

* At the end of the Hanish war, eleven young Eritreans were sacrificed for nothing. Mr. Isaias never explained his motives for the war to the Eritrean people.

The public again carried their usual music of "Wedi Afrewerki was right", and that Eritrea showed the world how strong it is. At the end of the war and negotiation, Eritrea lost almost all the land that it occupied by force.

Wedi Afewerki jumped on a plane and started friendship talks with the Yemeni officials. It seemed that Mr. Isaias gave new meaning to the theory that "There are no permanent friends or enemies in politics".

* When Eritrea attacked Djibouti, a country of half a million and almost no offensive military, no one explained what really went wrong, but luckily no body bags came home. The fact that Eritrea did not go very far at this adventure was because there was a big sister guarding Djibouti.

* Mr. Isaias officially announced that he was out to overthrow the Sudanese government, a country more than any other, has assisted the Eritrean cause during the struggle. Sudan is a country that has always been a refuge for both Eritreans and Ethiopians during the most difficult period of our history.

As usual, Mr. Isaias did not explain his actions to his people. He simply handed over the Sudanese embassy to the opposition group breaking all international norms and manners by which countries of the world are governed.

Consistent to his character, now he has decided to throw the Sudanese opposition group out of the embassy and give it back to the government of Sudan. Once again he did not explain his bizarre behaviour to his people.

The Eritrean public once again is telling us that wedi Afewerki is right. * In 1998 Mr. Isaias decided that it was Ethiopia's turn to fall victim to his tantrum.

First he invaded Badme. He then decided to go ahead and attack Zalanbesa.

He invaded Irob region ordering the massacre or arrest of all young Irobs, and the destruction of schools, clinics and even churches. When the war ends, there is a historical precedent that will be followed; the loser pays all.

There is nothing new with this line of thinking, especially when the loser has been so clearly guilty of all the atrocities and the disregard to the international rule and norms that govern nations of the world. Therefore, the Eritrean public needs to pay attention to the following points: 1.

If and when the Ethiopian people are able to push the aggressor out of the remaining Ethiopian territories, there will not be any need for negotiation concerning territories. Negotiations that will be conducted under this situation will have a very different dimension: It will include the offensive military that Eritrea may maintain, and the time frame Eritrea will be given to pay for all the human and material damages.

2. Eritrea could go through another "Wegie Hadhid" (civil war) questions of who was responsible for the death of thousands of Eritrean youth will be posed.

The Kebesas (highlanders) dominance will be questioned. This could rekindle a religious and ethnic conflict in the Eritrean political scene.

Many Eritreans, especially those outside of Eritrea know what president Isaias is doing is wrong, but have decided to stick to him to the end. The question is when is the end? Will they ask him why he took them to war against the only country that was in good terms with them? Why did he take them to war with their brothers and sisters, and jeopardized the friendship and family connections? The character of the man called "Wedi Afwewerki" therefore is central to this war, and any long-term solution must address this character.

Ultimately though, Eritreans must ask if they are better off with Isaias or without him. They must ask what is it that he has done for them lately.

I am hoping that invading other countries is not on the top wish list for the common Eritrean. What then has he done for ordinary Eritrea? Has he attempted to fulfill the basic needs of the common Eritreans? How many new schools and clinics has he built in Eritrean countryside? Has he attempted to build the basis of political tolerance and democratic culture? More importantly, was this war necessary? Is the price right? How much is too much? Wake up Eritrea! How long will Wedi Aferwerki be so wrong about so many things and you still take him as right?

The following document was released by Embassy of Eritrea (Washington, DC): Exactly one year ago at approximately 2:20 p.m., Ethiopian Mig fighter jets bombed Asmara, Eritrea's capital, in what was the first use of aircraft and a major escalation of what, until then, had been a localized border conflict.

The bombing of Asmara occurred on the morrow of a public announcement by Ethiopia's Prime Minister who told his domestic audience through the local TV and radio that "the Ethiopian armed forces have been given orders today to take all necessary measures to repulse Eritrea's Aggression". The Ethiopian Prime Minister gave the orders for escalating the war in spite of Addis Abeba's parallel announcement the same day that it "had accepted the US-Rwanda recommendations".

Forced to react, the Eritrean Air Force bombed the military airport in Mekele destroying several fighter aircraft. In the retaliatory strikes, stray bombs caused damage to a school resulting in unfortunate casualties. The Government of Eritrea promptly apologized for the unintentional loss of human life.

Ethiopia again used its air force to bomb Asmara the following day stopping only after two of its planes were shot down by Eritrean air-defense.

The United States brokered a moratorium on air strikes on June 14, although Ethiopia rejected Eritrean proposals for a total ban on air strikes as a first step towards a comprehensive cessation of hostilities. The introduction of air strikes by Ethiopia a full year ago takes on a disturbing significance now. In retrospect, the Ethiopian air strikes on June fifth must be seen as a significant reflection of the regime's decision to pursue war, not peace with Eritrea.

In February this year, after several months of intensive efforts by the OAU and other concerned parties, Ethiopia jumped the gun once again in a clear move to thwart peace. This time, however, the offensives unleashed by Ethiopia had all the characteristics of a total war. This occurred despite the OAU peace process that was in motion and a contravention of international calls (OAU, UN Security Council) for "both sides to observe maximum restraint".

Ethiopia's bogus pretext for launching its attack in February were fictitious claims of an "Eritrean air strikes on Adi-Grat". Again, the timing of the attack reveals a considered decision to impede peace with continued fighting.

This second phase of the TPLF's offensive became the venue for an Ethiopian air campaign that selected civilian targets deep in Eritrea and far from disputed territories. The decision to again resort to air attacks in this period was in contravention of the moratorium on air strikes. Ethiopia's random air raids in the past three months included:

* February 7th, residential quarter in Adi Qualla

* February 8th, residential quarter in Adi Qualla

* February 9th, displacement camps in Deda Lalai

* February 6th-9th, villages in Zalambessa and environs

* February 21st, villages of Menka'ka and Adin (Assab)

* February 22nd, town of Tsorona

* March 3rd, Hazemo and environs

* March 16th, town centre in Kinafina

* March 18-19th, central market in Shambuko

* March 29th, Adi Keshi and Koferenko

* April 15th, church in Adi Keieh and Mendefera

* April 28th, Bimbina

* May 15th, Zalambessa

* May 16th, warehouse in Massawa

Around 80 Eritrean civilians were either killed or maimed as a result of these strikes. Whole villages (Shambuko), residential quarters, a church, food storage and warehouses were destroyed.

The year since Ethiopia bombed Asmara has illustrated the scale of Ethiopia's intentions and the means by which the TPLF regime is prepared to continually escalate the conflict to deter peace. In one year, Ethiopia has carried out the expulsion of close to 60,000 Eritrean civilians. In one year, Ethiopia has used its mercenary-led Air force to attack innocent civilians throughout Eritrea. In one year, Ethiopia has consistently rejected a cease-fire. In one year, Ethiopia has repeatedly, and actively, thwarted efforts for peace. And yet, the border crisis was easily solvable from the outset and remains solvable if the TPLF regime was serious about peace.