Global Policy Forum

What’s Behind Nigeria's Military Shake-up?

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Stratfor
May 2, 2001

Summary


A week ago, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo replaced all three chiefs of the 80,000-man armed forces. The president appears to be moving to pre-empt his opponents, particularly members of the Hausa ethnic group. The loyalty of top officers is vital, both to the government and to Nigeria's role as a top exporter of oil to the United States.

Analysis

Nigeria's army, navy and air force chiefs retired April 24. The military claimed they reached retirement age and that was the reason for their discharge, reported Agence France-Presse April 24. But the decision by all three to step down – simultaneously – suggests they were forced out.

The president apparently dismissed the three service chiefs to strengthen his control over Nigeria's armed forces. The president is motivated by looming presidential elections, just a few years away, and concerns over the increasingly tribal and ethnic fractures of Nigerian politics. He is trying to pre-empt the Hausa from dominating the military again.

This struggle over the 80,000-man Nigerian military is important for the survival of the Obasanjo regime and the supply of oil, particularly to the United States. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and a top supplier to the American market.

Ethnic divisions define Nigerian national politics. Of Nigeria's 250 ethnic groups, three – the Hausa-Fulani in the North, the Yoruba in the Southwest and Igbo in the Southeast – comprise more than 65 percent of the population. There is a constant struggle for power and control over the nation's oil wealth.

President Obasanjo, an ethnic Yoruba, has tried to limit Northern dominance in both national politics and the upper ranks of the military. Controlling the military means controlling the nation's politics: safeguarding oil facilities, securing the capital and enforcing national policies in the vast nation.

For most of Nigeria's 41 years of independence, the mostly Muslim, Northern ethnic Hausa-Fulani controlled the military and national politics. In 1985, for instance, an estimated 70 percent of senior officers were from the Northern or Middle Belt region. Christian Southerners, including ethnic Yorubas and Igbos, dominated the administrative, technical and logistical areas, according to the Library of Congress, Country Study Report on Nigeria.

But in 1999, the president dismissed 93 senior officers for involvement in political activities. Most were Muslims from the North, reported Africa Confidential in October 2000.

Controlling the loyalty of senior and mid-level officers is vital if Obasanjo hopes to prevent a coup. Pre-empting such a threat is vital now that the country is backsliding into vicious factional politics, ahead of 2003 presidential elections. Already, Nigeria's political and military leaders are jockeying for position. In the last few months, two supporters of former military leaders have formed their own political parties.

The president's military shake-up aims to short-circuit the North's influence over the military. Two of the three replacements are Southerners, and the third is from the Middle Belt region. Obasanjo dismissed Army Chief Gen. Victor Malu, a vocal critic of the administration's cooperation with the United States and a former close ally of late military dictator Gen. Sani Abacha. Also sent into retirement were Navy Chief Vice Admiral Victor Ombu and Air Force Chief Vice Marshal Ibrahim Alfa.

The president replaced them with Major Gen. Ogomudia, who is the first Southerner to hold the position of chief of army staff since 1980; Major Gen. Rear Admiral Samuel Afolayan, a Yoruba, who will lead the navy; and Air Vice and Rear Marshal Jonas Wuyep, from the Middle Belt, who will lead the air force. The president won't likely stop with the senior leadership. In February 2001, he created new posts in the Ministry of Defense, apparently without Defense Minister Theophilus Danjuma's consent. According to sources quoted in P.M. News, a Lagos daily, the minister did not support the appointments and a week after the appointments, at least two of the ministers had not been given offices or assigned roles within the ministry.

Relegating military leaders from the North while elevating military leaders from the South could backfire on Obasanjo. The armed forces remain highly politicized, despite efforts at professionalism. More importantly, Northerners still dominate the rank and file.

Obasanjo's efforts to prevent a coup may result in fracturing the military as an institution. While senior officers from the South may offer loyalty to the president, the common solider from the North will probably be unwilling to support a government he views as biased toward another ethnic group.


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