Global Policy Forum

By Reginald Dale

As the United States scours the world for new oil supplies outside the Middle East, it is beginning to focus on a previously neglected area - West Africa.

The strategic spotlight is shifting to the region as a result of two recent developments: the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, which underlined the potential instability of Middle East supplies, and a recent rapid increase in West African oil production.

West Africa now sends about as much oil to the United States as Saudi Arabia, and its market share is rising fast. Nigeria and Angola are expected to double or triple their output in the next decade. According to one estimate, sub-Saharan Africa could supply 25 percent of U.S. oil imports by 2015.

The strategic importance of this trend was examined at a conference organized by the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies in Washington last week. A main theme was the mutual benefits that could flow from a grand bargain in which West Africa would provide the United States with secure oil supplies, while the United States would actively promote West Africa's economic development.

Nobody yet knows the full scale of the region's reserves, but Paul Michael Wihbey a fellow of the Institute, says that West Africa could rival the Gulf region. The oil fields, which are so far mainly offshore, provide a relatively safe source of high-quality crude oil much closer than the Gulf to U.S. refining centers. Except for Nigeria, none of the West African producers are members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Some see the region's future as a major swing producer that could help counter oil price volatility. It would be less dangerous in the long run to depend on West Africa for oil than the Middle East, said Ed Royce, a Republican from California and chairman of the House of Representatives Subcommittee on Africa. "It is very, very difficult to imagine a Saddam Hussein in Africa," he added.

Be that as it may, steps would clearly have to be taken to ensure stability in the region, given that there are at least two dozen conflicts currently under way in Africa, and such disputes are usually exacerbated by the presence of mineral resources.

Terry Karl of Stanford University, warned that oil could provide the impetus for either development or war, depending on the economic, social and political institutions of the country owning the oil. Several conference participants said that as part of the bargain, the United States should provide military cooperation and training, and perhaps discreetly deploy U.S. forces, to guarantee political stability and the safety of the oil fields.

Another potential snag for West Africa is that several studies show that the possession of oil or mineral resources often actually slows a country's economic growth.

Oil exports, particularly from offshore, do little to create jobs, and,as many Middle Eastern countries have demonstrated, oil wealth often reduces the incentives for a country to construct a diversified modern economy.

If West Africa is to be developed in a way that benefits Africans, ways must be found to ensure that the oil revenues are spent on health, educational, welfare and infrastructure programs, instead of being used for arms spending or embezzled by corrupt leaders.

This could involve new kinds of partnerships between the oil companies,governments, non-governmental organizations and the World Bank, according to some conference participants. Representative William Jefferson, Democrat of Louisiana, said there was much more striving for democracy and better governance in Africa than in most Middle Eastern countries. And in Washington there will be strong support from African-American politicians for a better deal for Africa.

Apart from promoting good governance, the United States would be expected to encourage economic reforms, and help organize debt relief and funds for the region from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank - the main aim being to improve the climate for foreign investment.

Above all, the United States must help the African countries develop by welcoming their exports of food and textiles. A start has been made with the trade provisions of the recent Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. But those must be much improved. The proposed partnership will not work if the United States treats the exploitation of oil resources as the kind of one-sided arrangement that has often been foisted on Africa in the past.

FAIR USE NOTICE: This page contains copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Global Policy Forum distributes this material without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted material as provided for in 17 U.S.C íŸ 107. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.